Calamity Forecast Index
7-day multi-hazard risk assessment for every country. Updated every 5 minutes from 250 scientific sources.
Last updated: May 15, 2026, 3:24 PM
Top Countries — flood
| Country | CFI Score | Risk Level |
|---|---|---|
| 🇬🇧 United Kingdom | 48 | elevated |
| 🇱🇹 Lithuania | 44 | elevated |
| 🇦🇺 Australia | 43 | elevated |
| 🇺🇸 United States | 42 | elevated |
| 🇲🇿 Mozambique | 38 | moderate |
| 🇪🇹 Ethiopia | 38 | moderate |
| 🇷🇺 Russia | 38 | moderate |
| 🇰🇪 Kenya | 27 | moderate |
| 🇫🇷 France | 27 | moderate |
| 🇿🇦 South Africa | 27 | moderate |
Methodology
The Calamity Forecast Index (CFI) is a deterministic 0–100 risk assessment score computed for every country × hazard type combination. It combines five weighted components:
- Cascade probability (30%) — likelihood of secondary hazards
- Return period (25%) — exceedance probability from historical baselines
- Seasonal pattern (20%) — monthly hazard frequency analysis
- Trend anomaly (15%) — deviation from 90-day rolling baseline
- News velocity (10%) — GDELT and Google News coverage acceleration
Five risk levels: critical (80–100), high (60–79), elevated (40–59), moderate (20–39), low (0–19). Full methodology →
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